Numerical modelling of the coastal ocean off Tanzania

Includes bibliographical references (pages 71-89).In this model study of the coastal ocean off Tanzania, the Regional Ocean Modelling System (ROMS) was employed to model the coastal ocean off Tanzania over the domain of 5°N-15°S and 38-55°E. It was integrated for ten years with monthly mean Comprehensive Ocean and Atmosphere Data Sets (COADS) winds and heat fluxes. Initial and lateral boundary conditions were derived from the World Ocean Atlas. The model was used to simulate the annual cycle, and the sea surface temperature (SST) output compared with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) sea surface temperature (SST) measurements for the same region. Although broadly comparable, the model SST was generally warmer than that of TMI data. The high SSTs in the Tanzanian coastal waters (greater than 28°C) occur from December to May while SSTs of less than 28°C occur during the rest of the year. The East African Coastal Current (EACC) experiences its lowest spatial and temporal average speeds (about 0.4ms- 1) in February and its maximum speed (1.7 ms⁻¹) in July. Speeds of greater than 1 ms⁻¹ occur during both transition seasons north of 6°S. The meridional wind stresses appear to be positively correlated with the EACC(r>0.6) in all locations and they are statistically significant (p<0.05). The annual cycle of the model flow in the southern Tanzanian waters seems to be positively correlated with the flow to the north of Madagascar (r=0.57 and p=O.O5). The flow in these regions changes in phase with each other from October to April and June to July with minimum speeds in November. For the other months, the flow in these regions is out of phase with each other. The model currents off southern Tanzania attain their maximum speeds in August when the South West monsoon is fully developed while the flow north of Madagascar attains its maximum speed in September when the South West monsoon fades. However, the flow in the southern Tanzanian waters is more affected by the reversal of winds over the tropical western Indian Ocean (r=0.69, p=0.01) than that north of Madagascar (r=0.51, p=0.09). This difference results in a larger annual speed range in the flow off southern Tanzania (about 0.4 ms⁻¹ ) than that to the north of Madagascar (about 0.3ms⁻¹). The ROMS model realistically simulates the annual cycle of the sea surface temperature and heat flux, the East African Coastal Current and the annual cycle of the flow entering the coastal ocean off the southern part of Tanzania. However, studies which integrate the large scale domain and regional coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions are needed to better understand of the East African climate and ocean variability. Such model results combined with suitable remote sensing and in situ observations will help improve understanding of the circulation and properties of the coastal ocean off Tanzania

Simulation of variability in the tropical Western Indian Ocean

Includes bibliographical references.The oceanic circulation and properties in the Tanzanian shelf region in the tropical western Indian Ocean have been studied in this thesis using a regional ocean model. The study investigated the influences of the Northeast Madagascar Current (NEMC) in the Tanzanian shelf waters at the annual cycle. Furthermore, the thesis examined the interannual variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the Tanzanian shelf region, and compares it with that offshore or with subsurface temperature. At the annual cycle, the westward-flowing NEMC advects relatively warm and fresh waters from the north of Madagascar towards the Tanzanian shelf region by interrupting the upwelled water from the Seychelles-Chagos ridge. At interannual timescales, the weakest interannual SST variations, which lie over the weak subsurface waters variations, occur in the coastal waters off Tanzania, where its variance is shared with waters to the north of Madagascar. Such SST variations are dominated by variability at about five year periods. The strongest interannual SST variations, which lie over the strongest subsurface temperature variations, occur offshore, being dominated by two periods, one at about 2.7 and the other near five years. The interannual variability of the region seems to be linked to El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, which induce changes in the thermocline and surface forcing in the region. Local surface heat flux exchanges driven by the anomalous shortwave radiation dominate the weakest interannual SST variability in the Tanzanian shelf region, with some contribution by the advection of heat anomalies from the NEMC. Further offshore, the strongest interannual variability of the SST is dominated by the thermocline variations induced by local Ekman pumping from local wind stress curl and by remote forcing from large-scale climate modes.